As turmoil continues, will the old Abou Ammar hold?

AMMAN - Recent Turmoil and opposition to Yasser Arafat has failed to dislodge the wily old warrior.

In the midst of all the talk of the Road Map and the continuous American snubs to Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, there is a huge debate going on in the Palestinian political arena over the extent to which Arafat is still the man in charge.

The wily warrior who has had a firm grip on Palestinian politics for over 30 years now is thought to be heading towards oblivion as Mahmoud Abbas has become the man Israel and the US recognize, and many parties in the opposition are sharpening their knives to start claiming the leadership for themselves.

The appointment of a Palestinian Prime Minister came after the monstrous invasions of 2002, in which the Israelis virtually destroyed whatever institutions and infrastructure the Palestinians had.

The Israelis and their friends in Capitol Hill had gotten tired of Arafat's games, and made their mind up that he is in fact supporting Palestinian resistance while condemning it publicly.

He was no longer able to appease them and they therefore started looking for alternatives to lead the Palestinian people.

However, with the realities of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and Palestine, this is not an easy task at all.

Anyone with an insight into Palestinian politics will tell you it has only one certainty; Arafat is the undisputed ruler supreme.

We must all remember that Arafat is an Arab leader, and has learned all the tricks of manipulation and controlling of individuals and organizations to a point that would make Machiavelli blush.

He has been able to play the members of the Palestinian government like puppets, assigning each a role to play.

While Saeb Erekat would go on CNN addressing the world about his aspirations for peace and seeing his children playing happily with Israeli children, Marwan Al-Barghouthy would go on Al-Jazeera talking to the Arab World about continuing the struggle and fighting till the last drop of blood in our veins. Both were two sides of one coin, and each served his purpose to Arafat perfectly. The examples are numerous.

The main secrets behind Arafat's success have been on the one hand his wilines and cleverness in dealing with his leadership and people, and on the other hand, the way in which he manages to portray different images of himself to different people.

Most Palestinians saw in him the revolutionary fighter figure they aspire to. For many he was Jamal AbdelNasser, Che Guevera to some, and even Salah Al-Din Al-Ayyoubi to others. On the other hand, and from the mid-nineties onwards, Arafat managed to portray himself to the Americans, Europeans, and even Israelis as somewhat of an Anwar Sadat, the moderate leader willing to compromise some of his people's sacred beliefs for the sake of peace and the gratitude of the Americans.

This game of Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde was going pretty well with Arafat until that fateful day, September 11th 2001.

After what Mr. Bin Ladin and his cronies did, the Americans were in no mood to tolerate anyform of non-compliance with them from anyone, and Arafat had to not only appear to be a Sadat for them, but become even friendlier and more helpful to them than the ex-Egyptian President himself, however hard that may be. Also in the aftermath of September 11th, Ariel Sharon had a field day destroying everything Palestinian in sight, without any objection from anyone.

This enraged the Palestinian people more and more, and made them demand from their leader being even more than a Gueverra or Salah Aldeen.

Arafat had always been successfully treading a tightrope between appearing like a traitor to his people, and a terrorist to the Americans.

After Sep. 11, this tightrope became a dental floss, and treading it became a very difficult task. Therefore, there needed to be a new face in the leadership, someone that can be approached by the Americans and Israelis, whose credibility is intact.

Enter Mahmood Abbas, a man who's image in the Palestinian political kaladeiscope had always been that of a peace preacher, someone who wants to dismantle the Intifada and make peace at all costs with the Israelis.

Many believe that Mahmood Abbas will be the man to sign a peace treaty with the Israelis, he will neglect Arafat, do what he pleases, and end the conflict.

This could not be further from the truth, Mahmood Abbas has always been Arafat's right hand man, he is Arafat's man through and through, and would never consider side-stepping him.

Abbas' credibility on the Palestinian street is nothing without Arafat, he virtually has no support but for the fact that Arafat endorses him. If he does attempt the unthinkable, the Israelis will be left with him and him alone to sign their peace, with no support from anyone in Palestine.

Times are very tough for Yasser Arafat, but i would personally bet my mortgage on him coming out of this storm stronger than ever, and still the leader of the Palestinian people

Saifedean Ammous is a Mechanical Engineer and an activist among Palestinian groups. He wrote this commentary for Alternative