October 15, 2007
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Can the Syrian Regime Survive this time?
Samir Louze

DUBAI: Again Syria finds itself faced with an increasing hostile environment, pressures are mounting and the regime is finding it harder to manoeuvre. Could this be the final battle before the capitulation of the Asad dynasty?

The American Campaign against “terror” in the aftermath of the September 11 attack blew at Syria’s involvement with various terrorist groups throughout the Middle East. The Syrian position during the American Invasion of Iraq caused a domino effect that eventually led to the unmaking of Syria’s regional role. By 2004, the UN security council issued resolution 1559 which set the new position adopted by the international community towards Lebanon. This latter resolution was a direct challenge to Syria’s hegemonic position in Lebanon and that of its core ally Hizbullah. The murder of Rafik al Harriri and the ensuing Independence Intifada in Lebanon opened the flood gates against the Asad regime reaching to the recession of the Syrian influence in Lebanon. The formation of the Special Tribunal to investigate the terrorist attacks against Lebanon’s political class had Syrian officials at the top of the list of suspects. Chances for the regime were looking bleak. Yet, things changed in the favour of the Asad Clan.

The Iraqi quagmire, the slow process of the international tribunal, Lebanon’s easily divided political class all played into the favour of the Syrian regime. The regime suddenly didn’t feel weak and isolated but regained some initiative. The Syrian’s initiated high profile visits to the Iraqi capital and opening of an embassy and developing trade ties while undermining the American role in Iraq restored some of their clout in that region. There undeterred attacks against Lebanon’s March 14 Alliance and there constant ability to cause havoc and disrupt the security of there neighbour started to gain momentum. As Syria’s allies in Lebanon, headed by Hizbullah, escalated their campaign against the incumbent government headed by Fouad Seniora a March 14 leader, the Baath influence in Lebanon seemed to be working out prospects for its return to Lebanon. With the French anti-Syrian president Jacques Chirac leaving office and a more conciliatory Nicholas Sarkozy taking his place the prospects of lesser pressure began to materialize, the light at the end of the tunnel could be seen. The main goal was to wait till the American belligerent president George Bush is ousted by the end of 2008 and then the Baath would be in a position to regain its regional role and even extend it further. The high profile visits from European officials and of Nancy Pelosi the speaker of the US house of commons were, to the Syrians, proof of their emergence from the dark tunnel.

The regime had won. Stability in the Middle East without Syrian consent is impossible. The Baath can disrupt, Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq if it deemed that in its interest. No Arab or international pressure could de-throne the ruling clan in Damascus. They were a fixed variable in any equation and could not be reduced to a negligible value in any scheme over the future of the region. Yet, it seems things are not going as the Asad’s aspired to, the dreams are going down the drain again and the tunnel suddenly has lost any trace of light. What happened?

The international community pressed with the international tribunal, the Mehlis debacle was contained and the process continued, at a faster pace. One by one the steps to forming the tribunal were being completed eventually reaching the point of no return. The status, location, funding and judges were all provided the tribunal is ready to try the murderers and the terrorists behind the attacks in Lebanon since 2004. The noose tightens at the neck of the Syrian regime.

The American’s seemed to be increasing their involvement in the Iraqi quagmire rather than receeding from it. There attacks were more forcefully targeting Syria’s area of influence in Iraq among the Sunni communities. The Arab ‘jihadists’ trained and smuggled by Syria to disrupt Iraqi security were suddenly being faced by and American-Iraqi alliance capable of winning the battle.

The flow of international figures didn’t pay off as the Syrian’s expected. Sarkozy was quick to regain the old Chirac track of supporting March 14 and the American’s in the region even going further with his stance versus Iran. The American policy was taking a more stringent position towards Syria.

The attempts to disrupt the political process in Lebanon were not succeeding. The government was still intact. The presidential election was still on the way. The parliamentary majority still united and undeterred by the terror campaign. The implementation of the Lebanese independence was still underway with two major achievements the UN resolution 1701 and the victory in the war at Nahr Al Bared camp were two additional strong points in the hands of the government. If a president is elected that would deal a severe blow to any plans of further chaos in Lebanon. The process of reinforcing the Lebanese border patrols and controlling smuggling across the Syro-Lebanese border could further limit Syria’s capability to disrupt Lebanon.

The Israeli strike against Syria signalled a new shift in Israel’s stance against Syrian armament and a new policy towards reacting to it. The Israeli military manoeuvres in the Golan and the military reinforcement there also indicates an Israeli preparation for an outright war in the region which Syria will definitely come out at the loosing end;  probably wiping out the regime along the way.

As things build up the Syrian’s only hope is to duck and wait for the clouds to subside, especially with the end of George Bush’s term. I believe that is only a dream, the American policy in the region will not change to any relevant extent particularly in terms of the Syrian regime in the foreseeable future. The limiting of Syrian influence in the region does not seem to be a policy to be changed in the near future. The regime is in for a tough ride that might be its last.