September 15,2007
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Failure to Elect President
By Mark Daou

LONDON: The French envoys return to Lebanon in September trying to negotiate a way out of the deadlock by seeing possible names for the presidency. The aim is to find someone accepted by both sides. A list is formulated and sent to the regional players including Syria, Saudi, USA, Egypt and Iran. A visit will be paid to the Syrian regime to try to get their endorsement for a calm solution of the crisis in Lebanon. The Syrian’s will reply that the solution will be with an agreement with the USA and not with intermediaries and that there should be a package over Iraq, Palestine and Lebanon. Efforts will fail to produce a result. An urgent Arab summit will be attempted to support the constitutional transition of the Lebanese presidency, the states will fail to organize it for the differing positions among the states.

In Lebanon an initiative by Berri will be attempted using a list of names for the presidency sanctioned by the Syrians and Hizbullah. No other names will be considered. Negotiations with the March 14 will not reach an agreement as both sides consider themselves able to pressure the other side into submission and that the other side can’t rule on their own. Stalemate and intense exchanges of accusations will take place.

The Maronite Church sensing the impending deadline of the elections steps up attempting to save the presidency from a void. Delegates start circulating around the country trying to reach a consensus. A call for a conference for the Maronite leadership in Bkerki is seriously considered but it does not give any results.

March 14th trying to maintain the constitutional deadline attempt to organize a parliamentary session but fail to realize it as the bloc is not able to muster a more than half majority. They might also fail to reach the decision to go ahead with the election on their own for fear of a violent reprisal by Hizbullah against the state institutions thus buying themselves more time even though the presidential term of Lahoud is done. The Sanioura led government continues in its functions enjoying international and Arab support.

Mark Daou is a Lebanese researcher resident of London, the UK.