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September 15, 2007
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Editorial
In
this issue Alternative attempts to present different
scenarios pertaining to the impending presidential
elections in Lebanon. The current President Emile
Lahoud’s term was extended under Syrian coercion for
three years, that term is about to end. In the midst
of the political rift amongst the warring camps in
Lebanon known as March 14 and March 8, the
constitutional deadline for the elections cruelly
lays its weight on the political process in the
country.
The
political deadlock has placed both camps in
difficult situations, both vying for the presidency,
both determined to foil the other’s plots. The
country is at risk of descending into civil war. In
that context what are the possible scenarios out of
the quagmire? Alternative presents different answers
to this question in this issue.
Four possible scenarios are discussed. The first is
if parliament fails to elect a president and the
state continues without a president. The second is
if March 14 elects a president by more than half the
members of parliament. The third is if a
consociational president is agreed upon by both
camps. The fourth is if Lahoud assigns a military
government or otherwise supported by March 8, before
his term ends. The fifth scenario is if a regional
war breaks out and Lebanon is dragged into it.
Lebanon’s connectedness to the regional political
situation is bound to increase as the local
political collision approaches and tensions
escalate. The regional clash does not show signs of
receding but rather of escalating with talk of
imminent wars and final ultimatums. Thus no matter
what scenario unfolds Lebanon will remain at a
relative standstill politically. The presidential
elections will not solve the more destabilizing
issues of Syrian interferences in Lebanon, murders
of members of March 14, or the issue of Hizbullah’s
arms and state within the state. Peace is still at
the horizon, unachievable at best. The coming autumn
seems to be a harbinger of more bad news, Lebanese
have to brace themselves for a tough ride.
Independence does not come for cheap.
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