June 15, 2007
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If Democrats take over presidency, what are their options?
By Hussain Abdul-Hussain

WASHINGTON: American voters and the world supporting change in Washington in 2008 should start drawing scenarios for Democrats taking over the presidency and probably reaffirming their hold of Congress.

If the new Democratic White House withdraws the troops from Iraq, then it is most probable that a civil war will break out with neighboring countries influencing the regions of their respective allies.

Iraq would become a safe haven for the world’s terrorists. Not only these terrorists would conceive of themselves as have being defeated the infidel America, but might choose to shift their war back to American and European soil, or not.

Regardless of what the radical groups in Iraq might think or do, and regardless whether the current administration went into Iraq to erect a democracy there or not, there remains one strategic item that America cannot afford to lose: Iraq is the country with the second largest oil reserves on earth.

With the world’s oil production peaking and probably decreasing in the coming two decades, as was recently reported by the Government Accountability Office, and with the Middle East projected to possess the last drop of oil on earth, and with China and the US locking horns in their competition over tapping the world’s oil resources, leaving Iraq with a potentially hostile government does not look like an option for the coming Democratic leadership.

Even if Democrats have tried to tie the hands of the administration in Iraq and withdraw non-combat units by March 2008, their move does not consist of a coherent plan and does not guarantee taking America out of the Iraqi quagmire. It is most probable that, should the Democrats rule, they will decrease the number of American troops in Iraq while maintaining a presence there and this clearly falls short of a complete withdrawal like a good majority of the nation imagines it to be.

But if the Democrats want to leave Iraq at any cost, then what will they make of Iran and its potential possession of nuclear weapons? Will the new leadership sit idle as Tehran’s Ayatollah’s grow more dangerous? Or will it work in cooperation with the international community trying to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, just like the current administration is doing?

Also in the Middle East, the new administration would keep its alliance with Israel and will maintain a precarious push for peace with the moderate Palestinian and Arab elements. Any radical departure from the current policy on this regard is mere illusion.

In relations with China, any new administration will try to keep the pressure on Beijing for fair trade, anti-subsidy of Chinese production and the appreciation of the Chinese currency among other American trade demands.

In North Korea, Democrats will carry on with negotiations and in Western Europe, they will continue with this administration’s effort of mending transatlantic relations, holding joint defense pacts and erecting anti-missile defense shields.

The Democrats clearly have little options should they take over the administration from the Republicans. This was evident in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s tour of the Middle East. Pelosi visited Israel, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories and Saudi Arabia and reiterated America’s support of these nations, an act that repeated what the current administration has been doing for the past few years and a repetition of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s visit a week earlier.

The only addition to Pelosi’s trip was its visit to Syria and its meeting with Syrian President Bashar Assad. In her justification of the trip, Pelosi said that she intended to open dialogue with Syria and Iran inline with recommendations of the Iraq Study Group. Pelosi, however, visited only Syria and clearly stayed away from Iran.

Along these lines, a possible Democratic takeover of the presidency seems to offer one minor difference: Talking to Syria and perhaps sacrificing the not-very-strategic budding democracy of Lebanon.

As it stands, the Democrats do not seem to be offering a very different scenario for their rule should they succeed in the coming elections. While all policies might remain the same, the only loser looks so far to be Lebanon and this might not merit the sought change.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a Washington-based journalist. He wrote this article for Alternative. He can be reached at hahussain@gmail.com