Opposition stiffens anti-Syrian stance

Syrians and their Lebanese cronies employed a mixture of tactics, to no avail

BEIRUT - Elias Shartouni

February 2005

The killing of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri completely transformed the Lebanese opposition into a credible group with a set of pre-defined goals, on top of them the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.

But before that, a number of events unfolded during 2004 culminating in the present situation. Not the least of these events, a miscalculation by all means on the part of the Syrian leadership dealing with Lebanese affairs, was the extension of the mandate of Lebanese President Emile Lahoud.

This extension not only provoked widespread discontent among Lebanese political parties, but also gave pretext for the world community to sponsor, through the United Nations Security Council, resolution 1559 which not only called for Syrian withdrawal, but also for the disarmament of the Lebanese militia of Hizbullah. Syria and its protégés in Lebanon accused late Hariri of brokering 1559.

The opposition, mainly initiated by Chouf MP and President of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) Walid Jumblatt, increased its strength by the day and encompasses today the Free Patriotic Movement, the Democratic Left Movement, the disbanded Lebanese Forces, the Phalangist Rank and File, Qornet Shehwan, and -- prior to Hariri’s assassination -- a shy participation of his parliamentary bloc and Future Youth Movement which shifted into full opposition after his death.

The opposition held several meetings at the Bristol Hotel in Beirut. One of its meetings in which it accused the Lebanese government and Syria of standing behind Hariri’s murder on Feb. 14, was held at Hariri’s residence in Beirut.

In each meeting, it broadened both its membership and the list of its demands. Still, the Bristol 3 document didn’t disclose of the vision of all the factions participating. Generally speaking, it is safe to assume that the opposition’s priorities are the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in order to restore this country’s sovereignty and independence, and after which normal and “healthy “relations” between Lebanon and Syria should be established.

For their part, the Syrians and their Lebanese allies looked much embarrassed before the international community and pressured. For this reason, their responses to the opposition seemed most of the time shortsighted and rather impulsive. The responses were mostly a combination of attempts of divide-and-conquer and employing the strategy of the carrot and the stick. To the authorities misfortune, such tactics were not enough to lure any faction of the opposition or to dissuade it from carrying on with its campaign for the restoration of Lebanese sovereignty.

The Lebanese rulers’ tactics started with pressuring opposition activists, mainly supporters of Jumblatt and the PSP. Most were summoned to intelligence headquarters and some were imprisoned under different pretexts. The climax of the terrorizing campaign was reached when Chouf MP and Jumblatt’s confident Marwan Hamadeh was the target of a failing assassination attempt.

The tactic of flexing a security muscle apparently failed and the Lebanese authorities dropped their stick and reverted to their carrots.

This started with the leakage of news that the cabinet was about to meet and grant the leader in exile of the Free Patriotic Movement Michel Aoun a pardon. When Aoun apparently refused to trade any such pardon for his political stances, the Lebanese authorities urged their supporter factions to hold an anti-Bristol gathering, which came to be known as the Ainil Tineh Gathering. The surprise of this meeting was the presence of Hizbullah, which now officially took sides as it declared itself an ally of Syria and its cronies, therefore dropping an old policy of playing equidistant to all parties.

With the old tactics failing, the biggest stick was used and Hariri was killed. The murder of Hariri was not only meant at setting an example for all those who intend to join the opposition, but also was aimed at taking away the best possible post-Syria period in Lebanon. Yet, even with this killing, the opposition stiffened and no one of its factions seems to be willing to compromise with Syria or its Lebanese allies as the bottom line of their demands seems far from being answered without a comprehensive Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon.